What does it really mean when people say, “we are going to eliminate the oilsands in Canada by 2030”, or that “Canada will be net zero emissions by 2050”

There are many sacrifices and investments needed to make either of those claims possible. For now, let’s focus on two areas that have gained a lot of attention particularly during climate debates.

Recently on Twitter, two users were observed having a heated discussion regarding electric vehicles (EV). One individual claimed that EVs would make internal combustion engines (ICE) obsolete and that fossil fuels would not be needed anymore once every Canadian driver converts to an EV. This claim is, however, inaccurate as only 60 per cent of fossil fuels are used to power ICEs.

This led us to our analysis, assuming that fossil fuels are completely eliminated from the Canadian economy. More specifically, we look into how much new renewable / clean electricity Canada has to generate to plug the void created from the absence of fossil fuel consumption. Our analysis comprises of two parts, converting all ICEs to EVs and eliminating fossil fuels completely from our electricity grid.

A. How Much New Renewable/Clean Electricity Would Canada Need to Generate If All Vehicles Were EVs?

If the average EV (75kWh) travels 10,000 KM a year, Canada would need an extra 62,000 GWh / year to run EVs.

If the average EV (100kWh) travels 20,000 KM a year, Canada would need an extra 165,000 GWh / year to run EVs.

B. Eliminating Fossil Fuels From The Canadian Electricity Grid

In Canada our energy usage is 652 TWh or 652,300 GWh (Natural Resource Canada, 2017), with 19 per cent coming from fossil fuels, or 124,000 GWh.

To power a complete conversion to EVs and to eliminate fossil fuels from Canada’s electricity grid, Canada would need to create 62,000 to 165,000 GWh of new electricity; and replace 124,000 GWh of current fossil fuel generated energy for a total requirement of 186,000 – 289,000 GWh of new energy.

Largest Clean Energy Projects in Canada

Site C Dam project:

• Annual generating capacity: 5,100 GWh;

• 9,300 hectares of land use;

• $9 billion est. cost.

Tavers Solar:

• Annual generating capacity: 800 GWh;

• 1,900 hectares of land;

• $500 construction cost.

Blackspring Ridge Wind Farm:

• Annual generating capacity: 1,021 GWh;

• 18,200 hectares;

• $600 million cost.

In order to generated 186,000 – 289,000 GWh of new energy, Canada would have to introduce more clean energy sources. The chart below lists how many of each of the largest clean energy projects in Canada would need to be created in order to generate 186,000 - 289,000 of new clean energy.

For Hectare Comparison:

Area of Calgary: 82,500 hectares

Canada would have to build 36 hydro plants to generate the new energy needed, four times the current size of Calgary.

Canada would have to build 180 wind farms to generate the new energy needed, 16 times the size of Calgary.

Area of GTA: 712,500 hectares

Canada would have to build 361 solar farms. This would be equivalent to the the size of the greater Toronto Area (GTA).

For Comparison:

Canada currently generates 124,000 GWh from fossil fuels for electricity generation, the US generates 2,500,000 GWh from fossil fuels per annum or over 21 times more than Canada.

The US also has 272 million registered vehicles (~7.8 times more than Canada).

Conclusion

In summary, if all registered cars in Canada were switched over to EVs and fossil fuels were eliminated from Canada’s electricity generation capacity, Canada would need to produce an extra 184,000 – 289,000 GWh of new, clean energy and it could cost anywhere from $110 to $515 billion and be on 0.3 to 3.2 million hectares of land.

The estimated cost and the land mass required to fulfill this capacity is evidently unfeasible. Even if we have the land required to build the renewable energy facilities, the cost of our utility bills would soar significantly, which would lead to further financial hardship.

In addition, the issue of variability cannot be ignored. Renewable outputs fluctuate depending on weather related conditions. No nation can solely rely on renewable energy unless it has a vast amount of electrical storage present to serve as a backup.